Sales volume and value have increased in various important sectors in the initial five month of the current fiscal year (from July to November). It was reported on Wednesday that the domestic demand in the auto
sales, oil consumption, cement sales, fertilizer usage and real estate has significantly risen in the last five months.
Chief economist of JS Global, Muzzammil Aslam, cited that such indicators are very vital to determine the economic growth of a country and are usually ignored.
“In spite of the weak macro-economic fundamentals, domestic demand in Pakistan is surging”, he said and added that the “fact that credit to private sector is non-existent (at least in the past one year) makes this even more astonishing.”
The recent five months have shown a growth of 20 per cent in the auto sales sector, as compared to the last fiscal year. The rise in sales was in spite of the average price increase of 4 to 6 per cent in the five months. The rush
in auto sales sector was thought to be even more impressive considering the bulk of second-hand car imports recently.
Stringed to the auto sales, the oil consumption of the country has also risen since the month of July. Overall, a five per cent YoY volumetric growth was witnessed even after 5 to 7 per cent jump in oil prices. Analyst said that
the reason for the higher sales could be the re-allocation of the country`s energy mix. The overall consumption of motor gasoline has increased by 24 per cent and furnace oil by 5 per cent YoY.
A 37 per cent increase in the cement prices YoY and 13 per cent year-to-date has been noticed. Although the prices of cement have swollen in the last five months, the overall domestic sales have shown a steady improvement of 7.1
per cent YoY.
Fertilizer prices have flown by 45 per cent, approximately Rs. 460 per bag in from July to November, whereas the consumption has increased by 3 per cent.
In respect of real estate, the economist admits that no data to support the thesis is available “but the reality on the ground vindicates our view that real estate prices in posh areas of the main cities have witnessed an increase
of 20-25 per cent.”
Historically, the discount has been 34 per cent. Pakistani shares also offer a dividend yield of 8.2 per cent.